Analysis of three Glendale City Council elections during the last decade show some patterns of racially polarized voting and possible violations of the California Voting Rights Act, according to a consulting firm hired to collect and decipher the data.
Glendale Community College and the Glendale Unified School District in November jointly commissioned Redistricting Partners to conduct a $35,000 study to determine whether they should move from their current at-large election process to a district system.
In the 2003 Glendale City Council race, Latino candidate Gus Gomez garnered 94% of the Latino vote, far outstripping his city-wide support of 23.7%, said Kimi Shigetani, vice president of the Community College League of California who presented the data on behalf of Redistricting Partners.
“The white voters within Glendale had a 9% support rate [of Gomez], so this demonstrates polarized voting with the Latino population heavily in support and the white population supporting the other candidate,” Shigetani said.
Analysis of support for non-Armenian white candidates in the 2005 city council race show that the Latino and Armenian voters supported non-Armenian white candidates at a rate of just 6%, Shigetani said.
And a breakdown of the 2011 races shows non-Armenian white city council candidates John Drayman and Dave Weaver earning 55% support from white voters, but just 9% support from Latino voters. Meanwhile, the Armenian candidates for Glendale Community College Board of Trustees, Vahe Peroomian and Vartan Gharpetian, drew 86% of votes among Armenian voters, showing that Armenians tend to vote as a block for Armenian candidates, Shigetani said.
The data is just a fraction of what the completed study will include, Shigetani said, adding that analysis of multiple additional local elections and state-wide ballot measures will be presented at a special meeting on Feb. 9.
In at-large elections such as those in Glendale, candidates can run and be elected regardless of their address within city, college district or school district boundaries. In a district-based system, candidates vie to represent specific geographic areas within those boundaries.
Passed in 2002, the California Voting Rights Act seeks to protect the voting clout of minority groups by mandating a switch to a district-based system in elections where the at-large process dilutes their vote.
In September, voters in the Cerritos Community College district sued to force the issue, saying its at-large structure diluted the Latino vote. Representatives from the Community College League of California and the consulting firm Redistricting Partners have warned Glendale education officials that additional lawsuits could be forthcoming.
Further, a new state law gives community colleges the chance to switch to a district system within a specific time frame without putting the issue before voters, avoiding a potentially costly and protracted approval process, they said.
A study of voting patterns would allow both the college and the K-12 district to determine whether they should consider a change; and if not, would provide them with evidence to defend against any potential lawsuits, representatives from the Community College League of California and Redistricting Partners said.
But several Glendale Community College trustees expressed skepticism about the early findings, questioning everything from the elections that were analyzed to the statistical significance of the numbers.
“I would be very afraid of reaching conclusions based on these numbers that say that these trends actually make sense,” trustee Vahe Peroomian said. “Also, I think our city has changed quite a bit in nine years since the 2003 elections. We have a successful Latino candidate that is currently on the city council so I don’t see why that is not included.”
Others said that they want to see voting data more specific to the college and K-12 school districts.
“We want to get to a real understanding if there is true polarization here,” trustee Tony Tartaglia said. “My concern is that we are getting some conjecture and some opinions rather than factual information.”
Glendale Community College and the Glendale Unified School District in November jointly commissioned Redistricting Partners to conduct a $35,000 study to determine whether they should move from their current at-large election process to a district system.
In the 2003 Glendale City Council race, Latino candidate Gus Gomez garnered 94% of the Latino vote, far outstripping his city-wide support of 23.7%, said Kimi Shigetani, vice president of the Community College League of California who presented the data on behalf of Redistricting Partners.
“The white voters within Glendale had a 9% support rate [of Gomez], so this demonstrates polarized voting with the Latino population heavily in support and the white population supporting the other candidate,” Shigetani said.
Analysis of support for non-Armenian white candidates in the 2005 city council race show that the Latino and Armenian voters supported non-Armenian white candidates at a rate of just 6%, Shigetani said.
And a breakdown of the 2011 races shows non-Armenian white city council candidates John Drayman and Dave Weaver earning 55% support from white voters, but just 9% support from Latino voters. Meanwhile, the Armenian candidates for Glendale Community College Board of Trustees, Vahe Peroomian and Vartan Gharpetian, drew 86% of votes among Armenian voters, showing that Armenians tend to vote as a block for Armenian candidates, Shigetani said.
The data is just a fraction of what the completed study will include, Shigetani said, adding that analysis of multiple additional local elections and state-wide ballot measures will be presented at a special meeting on Feb. 9.
In at-large elections such as those in Glendale, candidates can run and be elected regardless of their address within city, college district or school district boundaries. In a district-based system, candidates vie to represent specific geographic areas within those boundaries.
Passed in 2002, the California Voting Rights Act seeks to protect the voting clout of minority groups by mandating a switch to a district-based system in elections where the at-large process dilutes their vote.
In September, voters in the Cerritos Community College district sued to force the issue, saying its at-large structure diluted the Latino vote. Representatives from the Community College League of California and the consulting firm Redistricting Partners have warned Glendale education officials that additional lawsuits could be forthcoming.
Further, a new state law gives community colleges the chance to switch to a district system within a specific time frame without putting the issue before voters, avoiding a potentially costly and protracted approval process, they said.
A study of voting patterns would allow both the college and the K-12 district to determine whether they should consider a change; and if not, would provide them with evidence to defend against any potential lawsuits, representatives from the Community College League of California and Redistricting Partners said.
But several Glendale Community College trustees expressed skepticism about the early findings, questioning everything from the elections that were analyzed to the statistical significance of the numbers.
“I would be very afraid of reaching conclusions based on these numbers that say that these trends actually make sense,” trustee Vahe Peroomian said. “Also, I think our city has changed quite a bit in nine years since the 2003 elections. We have a successful Latino candidate that is currently on the city council so I don’t see why that is not included.”
Others said that they want to see voting data more specific to the college and K-12 school districts.
“We want to get to a real understanding if there is true polarization here,” trustee Tony Tartaglia said. “My concern is that we are getting some conjecture and some opinions rather than factual information.”
